Overwhelming evidence in Megan McKernan rape case

Bless the parents that allows their grown son to return to live with them after being released from a prison term. Whether from familial love or a belief in reform from the prison experience, I’d guess some folks still might find allowing their felon son to restart his life from their home. Craig’s father Doug Bailey was such a parent. After seven years for a burglary conviction, Craig was on parole and attending an extensive alcohol abuse counseling program. I wonder if Doug even suspected his son might be in danger of recidivism. Were there warning signs? Was he drinking despite counseling? Had alcohol been a factor in the commission of his earlier major crime?

I’m frequently bothered by the early release or parole of convicted felons. The United States has an overwhelming need for prison reform. From the big, profit-driven “business” of prisons to the institutionalized racism inherent in the “justice” system, we could take lessons from countries that are demonstrating successful reform and lower crime rates. Craig Bailey had served less than a third of his 25-year sentence when he was deemed fit for release by a parole board in Ohio. Overcrowding is one of many reason convicts (both violent and non-violent) become candidates for early release. But in the United States, incarceration is often used as a means of punishment instead of reformation. Had Craig been required to meet specific, consistent criteria for release instead of a parole ‘target’, he probably would’ve still been locked up instead of free to rape Megan McKernan.

Image credit: Episode screen capture from Forensic Files

I'm not sure how Craig thought he'd possibly get away with his crime. He might not have predicted the authorities being able to identify Megan's fingerprints on his truck. He may not have been aware of their capability to identify him by the DNA contained in the semen he left on her clothes. But there were so many other obvious clues he shouldn't have thought would be overlooked:

• Craig had left behind the cover from his rifle's scope.
• A purple glove was left at the crime scene, and its mate was found in the pickup truck that Craig was known to be driving.
• The vehicle Craig used in committing his crime was highly identifiable (Tweety Bird air freshener) and easy to relate back to him.
• Craig spent a lot of time with Megan, giving her plenty of time to learn visual details of him and the vehicle.
• Due to her injuries, Megan left blood in Craig's (father's) truck, and it went uncleaned.

Despite this evidence, Craig pleaded "Not guilty" at his preliminary hearing. This seems asinine, but it's a harmless tactic to follow if his lawyer believed there was a case to build. It's uncertain in the district attorney offered Craig any kind of plea deal, but the trial would be forthcoming.

DNA evidence is often the most compelling in trial, virtually unassailable. With the exception of identical twins, no two people have been found to have shared the same DNA. But when DNA is compared to a suspect or a population, not all of the specific markers are analyzed. Ideally, enough are compared to secure a match of overwhelming certainty. It was stated a DQ alpha DNA test was performed, and six specific locations were used. While the DNA recovered from the evidence did match Craig Bailey, it also matched 1 in 3000 (white) males. This hardly seems conclusive, though the preponderance of the remaining evidence sealed his conviction. So, why such a lack of specificity in the DNA test? The technology and experience by 2000 had come quite a long way. Was the DQ alpha test not appropriate? Had the DNA become adulterated?

Ultimately the sentence seemed appropriate for Craig Bailey's charges: First degree kidnapping, rape, and two counts of felonious assault. And it was satisfying to learn the judge had reinstated the remaining 18 years of his previous conviction, since his crimes had been committed while Craig was on parole. While he didn't murder Megan McKernan, Craig's crimes were heinous, and he was a repeat offender. These were probably factors, as he received a 46-year sentence. 64 years (it was 52 actually) is a long term in prison – ideally enough to keep the rest of society safe from a Craig Bailey, but it might not be enough. At the time of this writing (October 2021) and forty years after his attempt to assassinate President Ronald Reagan, John Hinkley Jr. was granted unconditional parole. My issue with this: His sentence was "life without parole".

Where is Craig Bailey now in 2024?

Craig Bailey was convicted of kidnapping, rape, and felonious assault. These charges carried the specifications of Bailey being a repeat offender and using a firearm. The court reports his judgement was entered on September 13, 2000, and he received an aggregate term of 52 years. Craig Scott Bailey is incarcerated at the Ohio Department of Rehabilitation & Correction (ODRC) in Columbus, OH. He is currently scheduled for release in 2052, three weeks after his 80th birthday.